Version: 0.0.1 | Published: 1 Nov 2021 | Updated: 1272 days ago
Data for Figure SPM.8 (v20210809) - Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Dataset
Summary
Citation:
Fyfe, J.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Kopp, R.; Garner, G. , 2021, Data for Figure SPM.8
(v20210809) - Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to
the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data
Analysis, http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/98af2184e13e4b91893ab72f301790db
Documentation
Associated Media:
Description:
Data for Figure SPM.8 from the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Figure SPM.8 shows selected indicators of global climate change under the five core scenarios used in this report.
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Figure Caption
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Selected indicators of global climate change under the five illustrative scenarios used in this report. The projections for each of the five scenarios are shown in colour. Shades represent uncertainty ranges – more detail is provided for each panel below. The black curves represent the historical simulations (panels a, b, c) or the observations (panel d). Historical values are included in all graphs to provide context for the projected future changes. Panel a) Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850–1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (see Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850–1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are calculated by adding 0.85°C (the observed global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 1995–2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995–2014. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Panel b) September Arctic sea ice area in 10^6 km^2 based on CMIP6 model simulations. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The Arctic is projected to be practically ice-free near mid-century under mid- and high GHG emissions scenarios. Panel c) Global ocean surface pH (a measure of acidity) based on CMIP6 model simulations. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Panel d) Global mean sea level change in meters relative to 1900. The historical changes are observed (from tide gauges before 1992 and altimeters afterwards), and the future changes are assessed consistently with observational constraints based on emulation of CMIP, ice sheet, and glacier models. Likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Only likely ranges are assessed for sea level changes due to difficulties in estimating the distribution of deeply uncertain processes. The dashed curve indicates the potential impact of these deeply uncertain processes. It shows the 83rd percentile of SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet processes that cannot be ruled out; because of low confidence in projections of these processes, this curve does not constitute part of a likely range. Changes relative to 1900 are calculated by adding 0.158 m (observed global mean sea level rise from 1900 to 1995–2014) to simulated and observed changes relative to 1995–2014. Panel e): Global mean sea level change at 2300 in meters relative to 1900. Only SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 are projected at 2300, as simulations that extend beyond 2100 for the other scenarios are too few for robust results. The 17th–83rd percentile ranges are shaded. The dashed arrow illustrates the 83rd percentile of SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet processes that cannot be ruled out. Panels b) and c) are based on single simulations from each model, and so include a component of internal variability. Panels a), d) and e) are based on long-term averages, and hence the contributions from internal variability are small. {Figure TS.8, Figure TS.11, Box TS.4 Figure 1, Box TS.4 Figure 1, 4.3, 9.6, Figure 4.2, Figure 4.8, Figure 4.11, Figure 9.27}
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Figure subpanels
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The figure has five panels, with data provided for all panels in subdirectories named panel_a, panel_b, panel_c, panel_d and panel_e.
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List of data provided
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This dataset contains:
- Historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 Global Surface Air Temperature (GSAT) anomalies relative to 1850-1900 (20 year means)
- Historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 September sea-ice area
- Historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 Global ocean surface pH
- Historical sea level relative to 1900 from gauges (to 1992) and altimeters (1993 on) (offset 0.158 m vs. 1995-2014)
- AR6 sea level projections relative to 1900 (offset 0.158 m vs. 1995-2014)
- AR6 assessed global mean sea level at 2300 relative to 1900 (offset 0.158 m vs. 1995-2014)
The five illustrative SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) scenarios are described in Box SPM.1 of the Summary for Policymakers and Section 1.6.1.1 of Chapter 1.
Is Part Of:
Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC AR6
Coverage
Spatial Aggregation:
Global
Spatial Coverage:
Global
Spatial Resolution:
n/a
Start Date:
01 January 1850
End Date:
31 December 2300
Temporal Resolution:
ANNUAL
Geographic Bounding Box
Lower Left Latitude:
-90.0000
Lower Left Longitude:
-180.0000
Upper Right Latitude:
90.0000
Upper Right Longitude:
180.0000
Provenance
Purpose:
Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and
supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by
the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI). Data curated on
behalf of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC).
Accessibility
Access
Access Service:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and
non-registered users. Use of these data is covered by the following licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. When using these data you must cite
them correctly using the citation given on the Data Catalogue record. When
citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable
as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure
originates: IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P.
Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.
Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K.
Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press. In Press. Citable as: Fyfe, J.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Kopp, R.;
Garner, G. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution
to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.8 (v20210809). NERC
EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 09 August 2021.
doi:10.5285/98af2184e13e4b91893ab72f301790db.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/98af2184e13e4b91893ab72f301790db
Format:
csv
Language:
en
Usage
Is Referenced By:
Resource Creator:
- Fyfe, J.
- Fox-Kemper, B.
- Kopp, R.
- Garner, G.
Origin
Name:
IPCC Data Catalogue